Cognitive Abilities Test (CAT4) Practice Exam 2025 - Free CAT4 Practice Questions and Study Guide

The correct answer relates to the representativeness heuristic, which is a cognitive shortcut that involves judging the probability of an event by how much it resembles typical cases. When individuals fail to consider the law of large numbers, they may mistakenly believe that small sample sizes can accurately represent the probabilities of larger populations. This can lead to erroneous assumptions and conclusions based on limited data.

For instance, if someone encounters a few instances of an outcome that seem particularly favorable or unfavorable, they might overgeneralize this limited experience to predict future occurrences, neglecting the broader statistical principles that govern larger samples. The law of large numbers states that as the size of a sample increases, its mean will get closer to the average of the whole population. Not acknowledging this principle can skew reasoning, particularly in contexts where larger sample sizes lead to more reliable results.

In contrast, the other options—availability heuristic, confirmation bias, and emotional reasoning—do not specifically stem from a misunderstanding of statistical principles like the law of large numbers. The availability heuristic involves relying on immediate examples that come to mind, confirmation bias entails favoring information that confirms pre-existing beliefs, and emotional reasoning is rooted in allowing emotions to influence judgments and decision-making. Hence, the errors stemming from neglecting the law of